Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Jerry Seinfeld gets discretionary trading

I am a yuge Seinfeld fan.

His eponymous show is by far the best sitcom ever, if you ask me. And perhaps even the best TV show ever. Definitely in the top ten TV shows of all time.

While I am hardly a Seinfeld fanboi, I do like to watch a video or two that features Jerry if I come across of it/them. Not only is it usually enjoyable, but sometimes may also provoke you to deeper, unexpected reflections. What's more, these reflections may even happen to be related to trading.

For instance, check out this video that shows an interview with Jerry and George (not this George, Seinfeld's famous sidekick, but Stephanopoulos) in main roles.



Feel free to watch the video in its entirety, but pay special attention between 2:35 to 3:05 minute of its running time. This is the part at the end of which Jerry says: "98 percent is the way you do it." 

See, he gets it. He gets discretionary trading. That's how it really is. Every discretionary trader has his own unique style and that's how he gets much of his trading edge. 

The other part comes from strategies that have been demonstrated to serve well traders, and not just any traders, but discretionary ones. KING, an e-mini futures day trading course and discretionary trading methodology, is what fills the bill in this regard better than most trading methodologies out there because most of the other methodologies are not even advertised as methodologies for discretionary trading. 

And while we at it, a brief reminder that I am now offering a very special special on KING related to some special occasion that does not happen even every decade (and that's not necessarily Covid, though this has unfortunately been quite a special event recently too).

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Some recent updates

This is just a brief note about some recent changes that have taken place on my e-mini futures site and on this blog. 

My website has just been updated with some new information after about two years of hiatus; you may need to reload (refresh) pages in your browser if they appear not updated. I have also extended my domain with GoDaddy for two more years.  

As I mentioned in one of the recent posts here, I don't expect my site to be updated more than a few times a year. Most of my online publishing activity has now shifted to this blog and to my Twitter feed.  

A new page has been added to this blog. It's about my Twitter feed. Twitter is the Internet media platform that I am likely to post most frequently, so you may as well follow me there if you are interested in trading matters, especially related to trading e-mini futures markets. 

I have been on Twitter since 2007, have accumulated over 8000 tweets. I especially recommend that you visit the media section of my feed. It was very busy between 2013 and 2016, having accumulated about 2000 screenshots of the kind that a trader and especially a newbie trader should find rather interesting. 

Some things I was planning for this year did not happen, mostly due to Covid 19, a major economic and social disruptor of 2020. I was hoping its effects would be more limited, lasting perhaps 3-6 months. Alas, we will probably not be entirely free of this plague until the second quarter of 2021, and even that is somewhat optimistic. 

Still, what I have not accomplished in 2020 will only get postponed to 2021. That includes a new, upgraded version of KING, all custom indicators for this e-mini futures day trading methodology, and a forum for KING users, if there is enough interest for it. Also, my site that is now being updated, will become fully up-to-date in the first quarter of 2021, if not in the first month of 2021. 

In other words, I want to have my site and my business fully operational as soon as possible, and that means in the first few months of 2021. I say so also in this recent article on my site that addresses some of major changes on my site and in my business that I recommend your attention. 

Let us hope that 2021 is vastly better than 2020. No one, probably, expected 2020 to be as bad as it turned out to be, but life is not always as smooth and predictable as we would like it to be. Luckily, major pandemics don't happen that often, and the next one is less likely to cause as much disruption as Covid has for we are now better prepared for it. Or, so one hopes.  

Have a very happy holiday season and the greatest New Year possible. Merry Christmas to all who celebrate this traditional family holiday. 

Sunday, November 29, 2020

More about KING - the best stuff on my e-mini futures site

My site at eminimethods.com is not being updated a lot these days, to put it mildly, and even when I finally start doing so again, it will probably be updated only infrequently. I have decided to shift most of what I write about trading e-mini futures to this blog, which has been around for about as long as the site and has already reached a very nice milestone: 500 posts. It's just so much easier to write/post on a blog than on a static site. 

Still, there is already quite a bit of stuff on my site and perhaps it makes sense to use this blog, at least from time to time, to showcase the best of what's in there. I have actually been meaning to do so for some time now, so without further ado, let me go for it.

Let me focus in this first post on the best stuff related to KING, my flagship e-mini futures day trading product, a self study course for discretionary traders on a small budget. 

There is a subsection in the section dedicated to KING called More. You may to visit this part of my site for more articles (hence its name) about KING beyond what's offered on KING's main page, but right below let me share with you just three out of dozens of articles placed in there.

How I am not a guru or do you want to feel empowered?

KING as a trading philosophy

Truth versus lies

The articles were in part inspired by online exchanges, usually brief, with some traders or budding traders. I always appreciate such exchanges. I find them quite useful and valuable for my educational (trading) business. Many of the articles on my site and some that became part of KING are the result of such interactions. 

I hope they can help you get a better grasp of what KING is about and how I approach my business. As I said, there are quite a few more of them in the More subsection of my site, so feel free to check them out, especially if you are interested in buying KING. 

Let me use this opportunity to remind you that I am now offering a huge discount on KING. The best prices won't last too long (one copy at $900 is already gone). 

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Dow Jones hits 30,000!

And closes above that level, soaring even, if slightly, above 30,100 at some point! What a milestone!

That should certainly lift the spirits of many Americans and everyone who cares about the US and global economies suffering from that nasty COVID-19 virus for several months now. It's also nice that this is coming right before Thanksgiving.  

I still remember where I was when the news of the Dow closing above 4,000 reached me. The news was delivered by a newspaper headline when I was passing by a newspaper vending machine. It was during Bill Clinton's first term, in February 1995, and it was the beginning of a pretty good time for the US economy and financial markets. His second term was nothing to sneeze at either. 

The stock market back then (meaning the roaring 90's) was driven largely by stocks of Internet and computer companies. Some became quite famous, like Amazon or Dell. Others never made it falling into obscurity. Irrational exuberance was the term for what was going on in the US stock market in those years. A less poetic term is a financial bubble as the Dow more than tripled when Bill Clinton was in office. It's very unlikely that the tripling like that will be repeated any time soon, perhaps even never again. Clinton left his office when the market was already declining, though still pretty stable, in January 2001. 

By the time the Dow hit 10,000, which was in March 1999, I had already been trading stocks for a few years, Dell, among others, and a whole bunch of crazy Internet stocks most of which have disappeared by now.

By the time it hit 20,000, which happened in January 2017, I had been day trading e-mini futures markets for some 14 years. I can't believe this new major milestone comes less than 4 years after the previous milestone of this kind. Note that both happened during Donald Trump's presidency. I am afraid it will be rather hard for his successor to repeat this feat in 4 years. But not impossible.  

One should add that during the 8 years of Barack Obama's presidency, the Dow more than doubled, but he took over from George W. Bush when the market was very low due to a serious financial crisis raging back then; that was not the case with Clinton. 

Incidentally, speaking about trading futures, my favorite e-mini futures market happens to be YM, the Dow Jones e-mini. You can find more about my trades using my own trading methodology on my site. 

The methodology is offered to the public as an e-mini futures day trading course named KING. At this very time, I am offering a generous discount on it. 

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

15 years in business ... and some special offers

On December 18th, 2005 I launched a web site that deals primarily with day trading e-mini futures, an increasingly popular class of trading vehicles. The site is called eminimethods.com

Yes, that's almost 15 years ago, or, it will be exactly that many, a month from now. 

It actually was not my first site dedicated to futures markets; it was the second one. That makes me a bit of a veteran in this regard especially that the first site had been launched 25 years ago. I closed it down after 7 years or so of running it and making some money through ads. I wanted to focus more on day trading e-mini futures and so I thought that keeping that site active would be a distraction. Shutting it down was a pretty bad mistake, which I understood only a few years later. Learning from this mistake certainly helped me to keep running eminimethods.com twice as long already, and I think I have at least another 5 years in me. Perhaps even 10.

You may have noticed that the site has not been updated for some time. That's only temporary, as I plan to resume updates soon. But the site has already accumulated so many pages that even I begin to lose track of them. There is quite a bit of educational information there for the site is not just commercial but from the very outset it was meant to be educational as well. 

That part is mainly represented by a section named A word of advice. But that's actually only one of three subsections of Trading advice, although the most important one. That's not all as you can still find even more educational information in a subsection of a major part of the site that is dedicated to my flagship e-mini futures trading product KING.

Speaking of KING, which was launched 12 years ago, I want to keep it available for at least another 3 years, but it's possible it will reach its 20th birthday. That would certainly be nice. 

KING is an e-mini futures day trading course for those interested in discretionary trading. While discretionary trading may not be to everyone's liking, I believe that a well-trained small time trader can have a real edge over professionals with good discretionary methods. There is plenty of evidence to this effect on my site. Not only in its Testimonials section, but, even more importantly in the Results section of KING. There's strength in numbers and the numbers here are pretty large. 

Feel free also to visit the media section of my Twitter feed where for some 3 years I was posting my trading results via screenshots in near real-time. You can find about 2000 trades with documented results in there. See one of the last such screenshots embedded right above. 

Practically every year around this time, I offer KING at a slightly reduced price, off by at least $200. This holiday season is no different in this respect, perhaps even more special than usual due to the 15th anniversary of my site. 

That's why I am now offering a super-special price for KING - $900 for the first two buyers, $1000 for the next three, and $1200 for everybody else. The whole offer is valid until January 18th, 2021. 

Contact me by e-mail if you are interested. You make a payment through Paypal. The best offers are not likely to last long, so don't delay your decision. 

The prices listed do not include the custom indicators for KING. They are always sold separately. Since the indicators KING's trading methodology relies on are fully disclosed, you can port them to any platform you like. You can do it on your own if you wish without paying me a penny.

But you can also get from me, for a small extra charge ($100), custom designed indicators for some popular platforms that KING supports. At this point, it's TradeStation, but upgraded custom indicators for NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart, and (perhaps) MultiCharts should be available by the end of 2020. Moreover, KING comes with some standard indicators for Sierra Chart free of charge. This is because KING was originally designed for this platform and I was using it for many years when trading e-mini futures markets (at this point I am taking a break from it).

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Trump's loss as a lesson in trading (perhaps)

Let me start by saying that I did not have a dog in this fight. If only because I prefer younger candidates for this very important office and not only for the US but much of the rest of the world. 

In 2016, I preferred Hillary Clinton and was hoping she would win. Trump was too much of a shock guy to me. Hillary mishandled her campaign by treating Trump as an amateur and insulting his followers (remember "deplorables"?). Being cocky and ignoring your opponent is never a good strategy, not just in politics, but also in trading, where your opponent is Mr. Market. I would say, in life, in general. 

Trump won not only because of that, but also, if not primarily, because of all the help he received, perhaps rather unwittingly, from media. Being a total novelty in a presidential race (not a politician, just a "regular" guy if a billionaire can ever be considered such) and quite a maverick too, he was getting tons of exposure in the media. This outsized exposure came with very little questioning of his future policy and most of what he was saying. He played the media like a fiddle. The media made him president more than they would now be willing to admit it if only because that would expose them as empty suits. But that's exactly what Trump did: he showed the world that the US media is not exactly the bulwark of democracy that it is sometimes portrayed to be; usually by the media themselves, so that's self-serving, and, no wonder, not exactly true.

Once he became the US president, the media turned against him; most of them, anyway. Just as much as I didn't like the exposure he had been getting in the runup to the election, I did not like that now the media was stigmatizing him. Even though, at first, I was rather critical of him, after a year or two of his presidency, I came to the conclusion that he was not that bad. Certainly not as bad as the media was trying to make it. 

The financial markets were proving this too. The economy was booming. It was Hillary's husband, Bill Clinton, who ran his first successful presidential campaign on the slogan "It's the economy, stupid!" and by this standard, quite reasonable indeed, Trump was doing well as the holder of the highest office in nation. Not insignificant is also the fact that despite coming across as more combative than most US presidents in recent history, he started no wars, let alone questionable ones.  

While the stigmatization he was subjected to in the media did not sit well with me, to be fair, he was not helping himself with his frequent and often "in your face" use of Twitter. Being the most powerful man in the world, did he really have to engage in little, sometimes nasty, online fights? He was goading the media and the media was responding in kind. 

But that was also part of his strategy, it seems, whether it was intentional or somehow emerged out of his actions. 

He is a bit of a chaos or distraction (diversion) guy. His use of Twitter and his shock and awe strategy (much of it shock) is indicative of that. That might have worked, though, being rather unique if not radical. It's possible it was giving him some edge. Unfortunately for him, in early 2020, things changed abruptly when the COVID pandemic engulfed the world and the US became affected by it worse than most developed countries. 

The chaos strategy can work under normal conditions. It may then give you an edge. But when the normal becomes chaotic as it did when COVID stroke, making things even slightly more chaotic only makes the whole situation worse. You lose your edge, which now is seeking a return to an equilibrium. What works in one regime, may not work in another. In fact, it may lead to a catastrophic outcome. This is what happened: Trump's response to COVID was ineffective, he misjudged it and, consequently, mishandled the problem. If there is one thing that contributed to his election loss, apart from his aggressive "in your face" attitude that many so detest, it was this very inadequate response to the pandemic. 

Prior to COVID, everything seemed to be pointing to his reelection, in my view. COVID changed everything and Trump approached it as if it were an ordinary flu. It was not. Even though I too at first thought the problem would be over in two months or so, it soon became clear to me that this was not going away until 2021 at the earliest.

The moral (lesson) for traders from this debacle is this: your strategy may not work in all conditions, or not equally well, so you need to adjust it or stop using it if only for a while. 

Joe Biden is now very likely to be sworn in as the next US President. Considering his rather advanced age, his mind not as sharp as it used to be, which inevitably comes with age, I don't think he is as good a choice for this office as Hillary Clinton was in 2016. It's not obvious he will be a better president than Trump, though I expect him to be less combative, especially on Twitter. His running mate, Ms. Harris, is going to make history by becoming the first woman to be elected US Vice President. One should wish both of them well. 

Since the Senate remains Republican and the House is not strongly Democrat (in fact, even less so than prior to the election) this appears to be a situation that Wall Street likes the most and so no wonder the US markets have rallied accordingly. Once the COVID scare is over, things will be back to normal. Probably as soon as the second half of 2021.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

On the importance of persistence in trading

Not only in trading is persistence important, of course. Or, even, very important.

In fact, I am just reading an excellent book, Big Magic: How to Live a Creative Life, and Let Go of Your Fear, by Elizabeth Gilbert, a bestselling author, and there is a chapter in it called "Persistence". That's how important it is. Incidentally, I highly recommend this book to anyone, including traders, and you can get it from Amazon through the link above.

While we at it, let me offer you a quote from this book that also perfectly applies to trading: "It's a simple and generous rule of life that whatever you practice, you will improve at."

It is trading that we are really or primarily interested in this post. Mastering trading, in particular, as it is here where sticking to it can be of utmost importance. You just need to give yourself enough time and keep working for your hard work to start paying off and your dreams of becoming a successful trader to come to fruition.

This post about persistence was partially inspired by an e-mail I recently sent to a new KING trader (or rather still a student). I did it in response to his e-mail, in which he says he is not too happy with his progress. Well, in my view, he was not doing that bad at all, especially if you take into account he had been practicing trading using KING ideas for about 3 weeks only. I basically advised him to be more patient and persistent. I wrote the following as part of my response.

The longer you stick to it the more progress you will see, but it may not be steady and that's also something to keep in mind. I strongly believe that people can do better than they think they can, but only those who are persistent. It's also helpful not to have any concrete expectations, rather the expectation of being able to improve oneself and that does happen with time, at least, for most.

If you are a beginning trader, you too may be as impatient as the next guy. We all tend to be impatient. But the tough truth is only those who can muster more patience than others stand a chance in a competitive business. It is also important to realize, as I say in the above message, that the progress is rarely steady. It may come in spurts, sometimes when you have almost lost your faith, and that's why persistence is so important. To capture the rewards of your hard work.

I write about trading matters, including things of psychological nature, on my site as well, mainly in its section called A Word of Advice, which you may want to check out too.