Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Fragile - handle with care!

Steve Jobs, the CEO of Apple, has resigned this afternoon, PST. Mr. Jobs has been battling cancer of the pancreas since 2004, a very deadly disease with a depressingly low survival rate.

Life is so fragile.

Let's hope that he will stay with us for as long as possible. After all, he is a tough fighter. We have been lucky that he has been on our side.

Yesterday, I got some sad news from one of my KING clients, a good guy, a very good and dedicated trader who has been in hospital for about 3 weeks now. He was very kind to offer an extensive and candid review of KING, based on his experience rather than the desire to boost his ego as not infrequently is the case on many a trading forum out there. He says that he almost died 2 weeks ago due to an infection of the same vital organ that cancer attacked in Mr. Jobs. Fortunately, my client's prospects of survival are much better and I do wish him the speediest of recoveries.

Sad news, but there is always hope. And so I do hope that both Mr. Jobs and Paul will stay with us for many years to come. I do wish them this wholeheartedly.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Not a Buddhist, but ...

Obviously Dylan Ratigan is not a Buddhist. There is no question about it. The question, though, is what kind of drugs he is using that allow him to survive rants like that without a heart attack. I would love to know that.

I think he is right. But I am afraid that without a strong catalyst, nothing will change. I don't see a catalyst like that on the horizon, but they tend to be unpredictable. Fortunately ...

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The real perfect 10

It's doubly perfect. First, because it's 10 winners in a row. Second, because none of these beauties took more than 1 minute. In fact, not even 45 seconds, and the best one took just a whopping 1 second. These results are from my favorite emini market, YM, the Dow e-mini futures.

Too good to be true?

Not really, unless you believe what some people say on some trading forums. On one, to be more specific. You know, the one run by the guy who blew two of his day trading accounts and now thinks he has some trading insight to offer. Taking a guy like that (or his followers, for that matter) seriously is like taking seriously boxing lessons from a fellow who left all his teeth in a ring. If you are after a toothless smile, go for it. Otherwise, find someone who has a brilliant smile and can box too.

People who think so ("too good to be true") simply don't understand (and sometimes even don't want to) what determines this kind of performance. Some of them would love to believe, naively, I must say, that I have some kind of power system. The truth is, the thing that is, if only partially, responsible for these results, KING, is not even a system.

I insist on calling it a trading methodology in order to avoid any confusion with a mechanical trading system which KING is not. Still, I believe KING is much better than any mechanical trading system for those who prefer discretionary trading and are capable of mastering it well.

It's true that when it comes to discretionary trading, the results are likely to vary a lot from one trader to another even if they all use the same trading methodology. That is to be expected. But good results, even like those shown above are possible for those who can master this kind of trading well.

Of course, results that good (truly "too good to be true") would not be possible without excellent volatility that has been with us over the last few days, or, to a lesser extent, even the last few weeks. Volatility like that is very rare, it does not happen every year, more like every few years.

To sum this up, to produce "too good to be true" results like those above, three things are really needed:
1. a sound trading methodology (such as KING, an e-mini futures trading methodology),
2. an excellent mastery of it,
3. exceptionally good volatility.

I should add, though, that even if the third component is missing, the other too can still produce good results, although not necessarily as good as those showcased here. Those are truly exceptional. But not too good to be true.

Friday, August 05, 2011

The best Schrödinger cat joke

Science jokes or jokes about scientists are relatively rare, at least compared to the jokes about blondes, but there are some.

This video features some of those science jokes. I think the best of them is the last one. For more about the titular cat character, check out Wikipedia or simply google the bastard out.

KING's trading results - 250!

250 is the number of screenshots posted on my site (in this section, to be precise) that feature my daily emini trading results. That's pretty much one full year of continuous results squeezed in a bit less than three.

When I started this section in late 2008, I did not expect it to last that long. I think it might be a good time to start something new, so I am not sure how much longer I will keep posting in there, but even this could prove to be a record not so easy to beat.